Northern Dragon

… life in the twilight years of modern-day democracy …

The Covid-19 vaccine race ends in 2020

Dual Visions © 2020. All rights reserved.

When Putin the 11th of August declared that Russia was the first country in the world to grant regulatory approval of a Covid-19 vaccine, many appeared worried about the safety of the vaccine and that the development of a Covid-19 vaccine was not a race with a single winner or finish line.

However, what has the Russians to lose? The Russians are heavily burdened by Covid-19 and thousands will die of the disease if no cure is found. So, if a vaccine could save some of those, then the vaccine has to have really serious side effects before it won’t be beneficial for Russia to use it.

An interesting side effect is, in the US the Americans are going to have an election the 3rd of November, so by then we will know if the Russian vaccine will work or not. Putin’s move does therefore add pressure on Trump. Because, if Trump did not consider Covid-19 a serious problem before, it will politically kill Trump if the Americans are going to vote the 3rd while the US has no vaccine and the Russian has one which works.

Fact is that Biden is far ahead of Trump in all polls. And it appears that the only light Trump is shining over the US is the fire in the streets caused by the violence powered by claims of systematic racism. Trump does therefore very much need this vaccine as a sign of success.

Trump may not have the same options as Putin, to simply to accept a vaccine as qualified. But Trump may be able to force an unprecedented fast acceptance procedure on a vaccine which has been through the required trials. The vaccine produced by AstraZeneca together with the university of Oxford, appear to be the one furthest ahead (https://www.covid-19vaccinetracker.org/). This vaccine is currently in the middle of the phase 3 trials, and the scientists of Oxford is planning to send the vaccine out for emergency usage in October. So even if the vaccine may only be accepted for emergency usage, then it will most likely be accepted to some extent before the 3rd of November in the US.

Or else Trump will for sure not be re-elected as president.

And if the vaccine is accepted for emergency usage in the US, then it won’t last long before it also be so in the rest of the world.

And even it is unlikely that the vaccine will be fully accepted for all usages before the 3rd of November, then it will most likely already be fully accepted late November or in December.

Because if not, the Russians will have a vaccine which is fully accepted in Russia and by the end of the year the Russian vaccine will have been tried for months by millions (of Russians). And if there are no reports of problems with the Russian vaccine, the political leaders of the world will be enforced to put a significant press on whatever authorities which has to accept the vaccine, unless the leaders want to commit political suicide.

So even there are some which believe that the development of a vaccine is not a race with a finish line, then Putin has de facto created one.

Categories: Reflection

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1 reply

  1. We do live in strange times when Putin might hold the world to ransom with a somewhat dubious vaccine. Who would have thought we would be in this position one year ago?

    Like

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