– Dual Visions © 2020. All rights reserved.
Some countries seem to have adopted the strategy that we simply should wait until so many people has got immunity that the virus will stop spreading by itself. There have even been thoughts about testing people to see if they have got antibodies against the virus, so those people should not worry about being infected by the virus again.
There are two issues with those sort of strategies. One is, that the virus appears to mutate quite fast. So even if you got antibodies against the Covid-19, then the question is for how long time that will matter (see: https://northerndragon.blog/2020/04/06/herd-immunity-against-covid-19-a-popular-myth/). Another issue is, that even people which have had the virus, appear to have very few antibodies against the virus. In other words, there appears to be no guarantee that people get immune at all (see: https://www.nrk.no/urix/nye-funn-reiser-tvil-om-immunitet-mot-korona-1.14977519).
The option of ignoring the Covid-19 does not appear to be appealing either, as the cost of that will be lots of dead people. Not only those which die due to Covid-19 directly, but also other patients who may die, because they cannot been treated as all the resources for their treatment is being tied up saving Covid-19 patients.
The most feasible option therefore appears to be the Chinese way. To catch everybody who have the virus and isolate them, until one way or another no-one no longer has the virus.
For that to work however, it is important that everybody are tested, also people without symptoms. Because those without symptoms may still be able to spread the virus.
Or, as WHO expressed it: test, test, test.
The challenge, of course, is the sheer scale of the thing. Quite simply, if the average person has been in contact with 20 different persons per day within the last 3 days, then the number of people which needs to be tested is 60 people per individual which is found to have the virus.
Using the GPS on everybody’s cellphones could be a great advantage in this connection…
Tags: corona, coronaupdate, coronavirus, corvid-19, covid, herd immunity, strategy, testing, virus, WHO
With a shortage of test kits, my country has just increased the requisite indicators for testing, so 50% less are now being tested!!!!! Incredible.
As you write here, Dual Visions, testing is king. And for a real, live example of what the result of that may look like, I found a nice article on Daily Kos about New Zealand – as compared with the US:
@Forestwood even more incredible that Denmark actually has found a way to make tests without usage of this test sets which keep being in shortage. The description of how this can be done is public and can be freely used. You can find it here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20044495v1
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Well said ❤️
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